Disclaimer

Prefix: The Legal Stuff: All opinions expressed in this blog are mine and may have been previously disseminated by me either accidental or knowingly. My opinions are just that my opinion, and should not be relied upon as such. Past performance of a stock or fund is not indicative of future results. No guarantee to any specific outcome or profit is meant or implied. My investments or strategies mentions in this blog may not be suitable for you and you should make your own independent decision regarding them. My material does not take into account your particular investment objective or objectives, financial situation or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You should consider seeking advice from your own investment adviser before making any purchase or investment. I am expressing opinions; I am NOT inducing you to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only expressing an opinion. I am doing this mainly for my children and friends, you are reading this with my permission. I change my mind and opinion and will do so without notice, you need to be aware you have real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment. You may get back less than you invest, negative return or loss. I want you to use what I have learned and make independent decisions regarding investments or strategies I mention before acting. You always need to consider whether it is suitable for you and your particular circumstances.

Tuesday, August 28, 2012

5th Stock Using the Long Term Limits to Growth



Metal Stock

In review you now have 5 stocks.  Consolidated Edison Inc. (ED) or another utility, Kraft Foods Inc. (KFT) or another food stock, Eaton Corp (ETN) or another industrial stock, and U.S. Bancorp (USB) or some other financial (Bank) stock of choice.  Last pick was an oil or gas my recommendation was Chevron Corp (CVX) but any oil sector stock would do.  Remember you can own any stock in the sector not the one I recommend.

Using the book “The Limits to Growth” the study by Graham Turner, my next recommendation is a metal stock.  (I break out the medal Gold from all other metals so Gold is in its own class for two reasons; first Gold is a currency, second Gold has few industrial uses other than being pretty and a currency we can live without it.)  There is iron ore Cliffs Natural Resources, Inc. (CLF), copper ore Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX), the rare earths  Molycorp, Inc. (MCP), coal (yes coal I put this one in the metals since you dig it out of the groud not pump it out of the ground) Peabody Energy Corp. (BTU), aluminum Alcoa Inc. (AA) you are probably saying wait a minute you don’t dig it out of the ground, that is correct but 75% of aluminum production is recycling, or steel Nucor Corp. (NUE) or United States Steel Corp. (X).  There is also nickel, zinc, magnesium, tin, and any others.  Unless we can mine the astroid belt or planets there is a limited supply.  Limited by what is in the ground here on earth.  So buy a profitable companies stock that is the primary supplier of an key metal.

I recommend  Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX).  Because copper is a high demand industrial metal that is getting harder every year to get as high quality ore.  Again you pick the stock, this is only my recommendation.  No new metal is bing put into the ground. 

Look at the chart again.  Notice the non-renewable resources graph in purple.  The ramaining resources will continue to get harder to mine.  Harder means the value of the resource will go up.  Well we invent new ways to recycle, of course.  Will we find new sources deeper in the earth, probably.  Will we use the non-renewable resources more efficently, deffintely. 

But we cannot create or grow more.  As the population increases the demand for the non-renewable resources will increase and the laws of supply and demand will kick in driving the prices higher.  At the same time notice on the graph the supply will srink.  So buy one of these stocks, and you can grow your wealth riding a long term tread.

 

Part II GOP Half Truths, or Falsehoods


Don’t Get Fooled Again Part II
In review you now have 5 stocks.  Consolidated Edison Inc. (ED) or another utility, Kraft Foods Inc. (KFT) or another food stock, Eaton Corp (ETN) or another industrial stock, and U.S. Bancorp (USB) or some other financial (Bank) stock of choice.  Last pick was an oil or gas my recommendation was Chevron Corp (CVX) but any oil sector stock would do.  Remember you can own any stock in the sector not the one I recommend.

By the way have you have you purchased your 5 stocks?  That is the purpose of this blog.  Moving myself and readers from the ones who have to wait to get trickled on, to the position of being the ones letting money slip through our fingers because we have so much.  After you have your first 100k invested you should have 4k of annual income by dividends.  If you are not paying off your debt and saving for your own move into the upper classes, why read?

This is in response to overwhelming demand why voting for your own class is what you must do?  Please understand the Bail Out worked.  If all the Money Center Banks and the auto companies and auto parts companies would have gone bankrupt then we would have been in the Great Depressions Part II.  Almost all the taxpayer money has been paid back at a profit.  The criminals on Wall Street should have been thrown in jail, and a claw back of the bonus monies and salaries they got while turning the economy into a casino.  Did not happen but they are rich and the rich never go to jail.  Vote for the president not the GOP who are blocking the economic recovery.

The stimulus worked.  It did not get us back to the healthy economy we want but it increased the GNP by 2 to 2.5% and kept (not created) 2 million Americans in work with jobs.  Read this book if you don’t believe me.  http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/power-players-abc-news/did-800-billion-really-buy-country-112720315.html 

The middle class has been crushed by Romney type budgeting fantasy.  Making no mistake the Romney / Ryan  will do wonders for you if you are one of the upper 5%.  It will continue to crush the middle class though.  A society is defined din history by how it treats its most valuable members. The GOP is not doing the right Christian thing.  Ana Rand’s philosophy is the diametric opposite of Christianity.  http://www.latimes.com/business/money/la-fi-mo-middle-class-20120822,0,4728951.storyhttp://www.examiner.com/article/middle-class-shrank-income-declined-during-the-last-decade http://www.indystar.com/article/20120825/BUSINESS/208250303/Middle-class-share-America-s-income-shrinking?odyssey=nav%7Chead
Seems the GOP are not telling us the truth.  http://news.yahoo.com/most-americans-rich-dont-pay-enough-taxes-160833705.html   Why is this all so they can lower their taxes?

Monday, August 20, 2012

GOP @ it Again, don't get Fooled


Don’t Get Fooled Again


In review you now have 5 stocks.  Consolidated Edison Inc. (ED) or another utility, Kraft Foods Inc. (KFT) or another food stock, Eaton Corp (ETN) or another industrial stock, and U.S. Bancorp (USB) or some other financial (Bank) stock of choice.  Last pick was an oil or gas my recommendation was Chevron Corp (CVX) but any oil sector stock would do.  Remember you can own any stock in the sector not the one I recommend.

The GOP is at it again.  As the lyrics of The Who song says; “Just like yesterday. And I'll get on my knees and pray.  We don't get fooled again.  Don't get fooled again.”  “Change it had to come…. There's nothing in the street.  Looks any different to me…. Meet the new boss.  Same as the old boss.”  Romney’s tax plan is another look at Bush’s tax plan, in simple language a welfare plan for millionaires.  Because Governor Romney has not specified how he would increase the tax base, it is impossible to determine how the plan would affect federal tax revenues or the distribution of the tax burden.  Currently Apple pays 3% taxes in the state of California, do they really need to pay less taxes?  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8b1g07uq4y8

 “Romney’s tax plan would Romney’s tax cuts would predominantly favor upper-income taxpayers. Those earning more than $1 million would see their after-tax income increased the most, by 8.3 per cent.”  Those making less than $75,000 a year would see their taxes increased.  http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/02/us/politics/romney-like-plan-would-tax-lower-income-households.html  “A tax system overhaul along the lines that Mitt Romney has proposed would give big tax cuts to high-income households and increase the tax burden on middle- and lower-income households, according to an analysis from economists at the Tax Policy Center.”  http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/

“As a result, middle- and lower-income households — the 95 percent of the population earning less than about $200,000 annually — would have to make up the difference, according to the review by the center, which is affiliated with the Brookings Institution.”  It's just about making our tax code more fair and making our tax code more helpful to the middle class, which is the backbone of our country and backbone of economic security and economic growth in our country.  Not about give away welfare programs to the über-rich Mr. Romney!  I worked for a millionaire as his accountant once.  He did not pay the taxes owed because he knew what would get him audited and what he could pad the company expenses with making personal expenses business expenses.  His kids had trust funds and created no jobs.  The GOP tax plan is all about keeping the idle rich idle and rich, not about jobs.  Without a strong middle class who spend all their income no one will create jobs.  You see when you start a business you want to invest your money to make more, taxes do not play a role in the decision.  As the middle class is being lowered less jobs are created since the middle class not the rich are the backbone of the economy and what we owe our prosperity to.


Why hasn’t Romney released his taxes.  Because his taxes are an embarsement.  Just like the tea party.  Where was the Tea Party when Bush had 2 unbudged and unpaid for wars and spent the county into the debt problem in the first place?  Since the GOP was in they did not care!  Romney has tricks at his disposal to avoid paying taxes. He has exploited many of these loopholes, stashing his money in secret, overseas accounts in places like Switzerland and the Cayman Islands.  His taxes are an embracement Romney is hiding something.

Trickle-down economics are good only for the über-rich, it is not good for you and me.  Mitt will promise to perform miracles with the economy that is what the GOP has been doing since time immemorial; they can usually do it for a while, or at least appear to have done it.  They have inevitable brought losses to the general public (everyone below the top 3%).  Their administrations are usually accompanied by flagrant manipulation and misleading reports and politics like the tea party now.  The performance of trickle-down economic policy is a poor one.  Unless you are one of the über-rich on government welfare.  Clouded by a motherhood, flag-waving rhetoric.  Now it’s the tea party (patriotism), the Constitution (patriotism), family values (Motherhood).  Actually motherhood was the battle cry when it came to the 800 billion drug company welfare program added to Medicare the Medicare Prescription Drug, Improvement, and Modernization Act (P.L. 108–173), the GOP that talked about it said, “I love my Mother” during their speeches.  I love my Mother too; let’s just give her health insurance like every other industrial country, healthcare for the common man not healthcare for the rich. (During a visit to the Statue of Liberty my mother fell down and broke her arm.  She was flown to a hospital in New Jersey.  During that two weeks nothing was done because she had left her Blue Cross & Blue Shield insurance card at home.  She is crippled now.  My brother flew to New Jersey put her on a plane and flew her home and a week later she was operated on.  Wouldn’t have happened in Canada, to a Canadian citizen in Canada GOP!)  In Canada they refuse to pay high prices for drugs and don’t need an 800 billion giveaway program George, and I bet they love their Mothers up there too.)  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=894XHp_NMks  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e8yR7KeKbSA&feature=relmfu






The Bush years proved that tax cuts for the rich don't generate a vibrant economy!  A healthy middle class is the key to job growth and a healthy economy.  The Bush tax plan is the key to a weak middle class and a recreating of the 1880’s robber barons.  Employment growth as fueled by the surrounding conditions, it's driven by the general economy.  Bush destroyed the economy, Romney is more of the same but on steroids. 

Do not vote for the GOP or the Tea Party.  They are in the process of destroying your economic future if you are one of the 97% of Americans who don’t make 250k per year.   They just don’t care about and want to tax so they can keep the rich on the government dole.  They will only make it harder for you to join the upper class with the stock market and real-estate investing from this blog.

The first Bush destroyed the economy.  He just lacked enough time to destroy it completely.
Clinton repaired the damage of the first Bush years, and was paying off the National Debt.
The second Bush wanted to complete his father’s programs and correct his father’s mistakes.  Thus a wasted war in Iraq and a destroyed economy took 8 years not four to destroy the economy with Trickle Down Economics. Plus he squandered the Clinton National Debt program to pump the economy so he could put billionaire’s on welfare.
David Stockman, who championed this theory under Reagan, has referred to the Romney plan as Paul Ryan’s fairy-tale budget plan.   http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/14/opinion/paul-ryans-fairy-tale-budget-plan.html 
Thomas Sowell has written that the actual path of money in a private enterprise economy is quite the opposite of that claimed by people who support to the trickle-down theory.  He writes from a conservative and libertarian perspective.
Tax cuts directly targeting those with less income would be more economically simulative, than welfare to Romney’s class.  The wealth of the super-rich does not trickle down to improve the economy, but tends to be amassed and sheltered in tax havens with a negative effect on the tax bases of the home economy.  Kind of like Mitt’s tax deduction for a dancing horse?  Or, Mitt’s tax havens overseas in countries there the rich like to hide income to cheat on their taxes.
Trickle Down Economics has destroyed the economy each and every time it was tried by the same party, going as far back as the disaster in 1890.  So why vote for the programs 2 champions?  Vote for the middle class with  Obama.  And, vote out the jokers in Congress who are in the Tea Party they are blocking the recovery and destroying the economy. 

Sunday, August 5, 2012

The Limits of Growth


The Limits to Growth

In review you now have 5 stocks.  Consolidated Edison Inc. (ED) or another utility, Kraft Foods Inc. (KFT) or another food stock, Eaton Corp (ETN) or another industrial stock, and U.S. Bancorp (USB) or some other financial (Bank) stock of choice.  Last pick was an oil or gas my recommendation was Chevron Corp (CVX) but any oil sector stock would do.  Remember you can own any stock in the sector not the one I recommend.

In a controversial environmental study released in the 70’s at MIT, by a physicist Graham Turner in Smithsonian magazine April 2012.  http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/Looking-Back-on-the-Limits-of-Growth.html 

The author found that growth cannot go on forever.  There is a limit and resources are not unlimited.  For my next two stock recommendations I am going to use this study to make you money.  In my next posts I am going to recommend you get a non-renewable resource stock and a production of food stock.  So again I have my own sectors slightly different than the professionals.  I believe they offer a valid diversification strategy.  So along with my recommention on an oil stock in the post titled “Oil”, I want you to get other resource supply stocks.



The dark band is the actual vs the estimated graph from 1970 to 2000 as observed.  The modeling is of unchecked economic and population growth with finite resource supplies.  Although it seems logical it is largely dismissed by critics (GOP who always want business-as-usual) as a doomsday prophecy. The scary thing is it is on track today, remember the Bush adminstration and global warming?  Scienciests agree global warming is not if, but when.  Logacally we can’t grow forever, so like Jim Cramer says if we can’t fix it we can profit from it. 
So let’s profit from the limits to growth.  Just because the GOP doesn’t believe in it doesn’t mean it isn’t true, we can’t grow streight up it is as simple as the elementary school science experment of a banana and half a dozen friut flies in a closed jar.  Did you do that in school?  Try it!  The banana can represent avalible resouces, the fruit flies the population or growth your choice, and the jar the closed system of the planet.  At a point the fruit flies die off due to a spoiled environment and pollution.  So in the future bogs I plan to add a two materials stocks, one from the Fertilizers, Agricultural Equipment & Agricultural Chemicals to play the growing human population.  And, a Mining stock to play the growing industrial output and production.